The International Monetary Fund has provided a fresh forecast on the fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia for the next five years, reflecting the gradual devaluation of the national currency.
Dollar rate
Hryvnia value trends
According to updated data from the International Monetary Fund, at the end of 2024, one dollar will cost 41 hryvnias . However, over the next five years, the value of the national currency will gradually decrease, and by 2029 the dollar will reach the mark of 54.1 hryvnias.
Projected indicators
The IMF predicts the following fluctuations in the American currency exchange rate in the near term:
- 2024: UAH 41 per dollar
- 2025: 45, UAH 8 per dollar
- 2026: UAH 48.6 per dollar
- 2027: UAH 50.4 per dollar
- 2028: UAH 52.1 per dollar
- 2029: UAH 54.1 per dollar
Comments of the National Bank
Head of the National Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pyshnyi noted that during 2024, the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate depending on market conditions and seasonal factors. In October 2023, the NBU abandoned the fixing of the dollar exchange rate, switching to a regime of managed flexibility.
Changes in the discount rate
In March, the National Bank lowered the discount rate from 15% to 14.5%. This decision became possible due to the further slowdown of inflation, a stable situation on the foreign exchange market, and positive developments in matters of receiving foreign aid. Core inflation also slowed to 4.5% year-on-year.
Cash and official exchange rates
The difference between the official and cash exchange rates of the hryvnia almost disappeared, and fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency took place moderately, as the regime of managed exchange rate flexibility provides .
Glossary
- IMF (International Monetary Fund) is a specialized agency of the UN, an international organization that regulates monetary and credit relations and provides loans to countries -members
- NBU (National Bank of Ukraine) is the central bank of Ukraine, the main issuing bank of the state.
- Accounting rate - the interest rate at which the NBU grants loans to commercial banks.
- Core inflation is an inflation indicator that characterizes the change in prices for goods and services, excluding seasonal factors.
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Discussion of the topic – The IMF updated the forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine for the next 5 years: what to expect?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its forecast for the exchange rate of the dollar against the hryvnia in Ukraine for 2024. According to updated data, by the end of 2024, the dollar will be worth about 41 hryvnias.
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Йоганн
Interestingly, the IMF predicts a gradual decline in the value of the dollar. In my opinion, this is a good sign for the Ukrainian economy. 🤔
П'єр
I'm not sure we can rely on these predictions. The hryvnia exchange rate often changes due to various political and economic factors. 🙃
Анна
Indeed, the situation is not easy. But I hope that the National Bank's measures to lower the discount rate will help stabilize the situation. It is important for business. 💰
Карло
I heard that the National Bank of Ukraine plans to abandon the fixing of the dollar exchange rate next year. I wonder how this will affect the market? 🤔
Вальдемар
Well, it seems to me that these trends are fashionable and meaningless. I will not succumb to this madness. 😒
Олена
Valdemare, but these changes could mean greater stability for business and the economy in general. Why do you mind? 🤨
Михайло
In my opinion, moving to managed rate flexibility is the right move. This will help make the course more realistic and relevant to market conditions. 💹
Марта
I also think that a flexible course is a good thing. But I am concerned that the dollar may gradually rise according to forecasts. This may affect import prices. 😕
Ян
Marta, I understand your concerns. But at the same time, the decrease in inflation is a good sign. Perhaps the impact on prices will not be as strong. 🤞
Катерина
It seems to me that these forecasts are quite optimistic. But the situation may change due to war or other unforeseen circumstances. You need to be ready for everything. 😔
Петро
To be honest, I don't know much about these financial matters. But I hope that the authorities do everything possible for the stability of the hryvnia. 🙂
Софія
In my opinion, not only forecasts are important, but also real steps on the part of the government and the NBU. I hope they take the necessary measures. 💪
Іван
It seems to me that the gradual decline of the dollar can be beneficial for Ukrainian exports. It could help our economy. 📈
Ганна
I wonder if the exchange rate will affect real estate prices? I plan to buy an apartment in the near future. 🏠
Антон
It seems to me that the transition to a flexible course is a temporary phenomenon. Someday we will still go back to the fixed exchange rate as before. But that's just my opinion. 🤷 ♂️