Climate change in Ukraine is accelerating despite the current cooling cycle. Significant increases in temperatures and extreme weather events are expected in the coming decades, requiring major adaptations in many areas of life.
Climate crisis in Ukraine
Record heat in the midst of a cold snap
In July 2024, Ukraine faced unprecedented heat, setting new temperature highs almost every day. Paradoxically, this is happening during a 60-year climate cooling cycle. This information was provided by climatologist Svetlana Krakovskaya in an interview with Forbes.
Global warming on the horizon
Already in the 2030s, a new cycle of global warming is expected to begin, which will be aggravated by anthropogenic factors of climate change. Events show that preparations for these changes must begin immediately.
The last 12 months, starting June 2023, have been the warmest ever history of weather observations. The Earth's atmosphere is overheated, with the continents warming faster than the oceans, and Europe twice as intensely as other regions. An abnormally long anticyclone is observed in Ukraine, which will maintain high temperatures until its end.
The Paradoxes of Climate Action
Surprisingly, efforts to combat climate change may temporarily increase the heat. The clearing of the atmosphere over Europe leads to an increase in solar radiation reaching the surface. The climatologist compares this phenomenon to an exacerbation before recovery. However, if we do not continue to reduce pollution, the planet will warm even faster.
Anthropogenic influence on climate
The contribution of human activity to climate change is evidenced by the unprecedented speed of its development. Natural cyclical fluctuations in climate, including 60-year periods of cooling and warming, still exist. Since 2000, a cooling phase has been observed, but due to anthropogenic emissions it is practically not felt. An overlap of natural and man-made warming is expected in the 2030s. If 150 years ago the temperature difference between the cycles was 0.2-0.3°C, now it has reached 1.1°C.
Future forecasts
In 60 years, the climate in Kyiv may become similar to the current climate in southern Romania. Summer temperatures are expected to increase by 7 degrees and precipitation will decrease by 17.2%. In a pessimistic scenario, the climatologist even suggests the possibility of the formation of a climate similar to the Middle East. Along with the heat, an increase in the frequency of extreme events is expected: large hail, droughts, floods - especially in the southern regions. Winters will also become warmer, with a significant decrease in snow cover.
Impact of military conflict
Russian aggression against Ukraine also makes a negative contribution to the warming process. The destruction of the Kakhovka reservoir deprived the southern regions of a natural source of moisture and cooling. There is widespread destruction of forests and infrastructure. Instead of financing environmental projects, funds are redirected to countering aggression.
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies
Preparing for future climate change requires a comprehensive overhaul of many aspects of life. A revision of building codes and approaches to creating a comfortable indoor microclimate is required:
“Instead of spot installation of air conditioners in individual rooms after the fact, it is much more effective to provide centralized air conditioning systems at the level of the entire building at the stage design".
Transport infrastructure needs to be modernized to ensure comfortable transportation conditions in extreme heat. Where possible, asphalt surfaces should be replaced with more heat-resistant materials such as paving slabs.
Despite worsening climatic conditions, agriculture will remain a key sector of the Ukrainian economy. However, significant changes are expected: the emergence of new crops, a decrease in the yield of traditional ones, and a change in the seasonality of work. New problems with pests and plant diseases will arise. A shortage of water resources is likely, since most rivers in Ukraine are fed by melt water, which will require the expansion of artificial irrigation systems.
The key factor for successful adaptation is the awareness of the inevitability of climate change and active preparation for it at all levels of society and the state.
Glossary
- Svetlana Krakovskaya - Ukrainian climatologist, expert on climate change
- Forbes - American financial and economic magazine, known for its ratings and analytical materials
- Kakhovka Reservoir - an artificial reservoir on the Dnieper River in the Kherson region Ukraine, destroyed in 2023
- Kyiv - the capital and largest city of Ukraine
- Romania - a state in South-Eastern Europe, bordering Ukraine
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Answers to questions
What temperature records are observed in Ukraine in July 2024?
How will the climate in Kyiv change in 60 years?
What extreme weather events are expected in the future?
How will climate change affect agriculture in Ukraine?
What steps should you take to prepare for climate change?
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Discussion of the topic – Heat in Ukraine: Middle Eastern climate becomes reality
The article examines the heatwave in Ukraine in July 2024, analyzes climatologists' forecasts for further warming, and discusses the possible consequences for the country.
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